Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 254
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
B6 254 · DCA → JFK
departs 6:20 AM ET · arrives 7:28 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 17h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.