AA 400 · CLT → MIA

departs 4:54 PM ET · arrives 7:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±10 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
42%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
17%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at CLT that day

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 400 · CLT → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?