AS 7011 · ANC → OME

took off 9:27 AM AKT · landed 10:41 AM AKDT (scheduled 9:14 AM AKT → 11:03 AM AKDT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at OME more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OME?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OME that day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↓ Arrivals into OME at that hour are usually not late

↓ 9am departures from ANC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

OME (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.54 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7011 · ANC → OME

Odds over time

How late did it get to OME?