Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 890 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

AS 890 · OGG → PDX

departs 11:13 AM HT · arrives 7:58 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at PDX that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 11am departures from OGG are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.23 in

PDX (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 890 · OGG → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?