BW 8042 · MIA → KIN

departs 5:00 PM ET · arrives 5:54 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at KIN more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to KIN?

On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
33%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MIA that day

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into KIN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.64 in

KIN (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BW 8042 · MIA → KIN

Odds over time

How late will it get to KIN?