Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1204
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 1204 · MIA → PHL
departs 9:21 PM ET · arrives 12:27 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 34%
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −20 pts in 24h
−20 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
9pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.43 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.