Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
F9 1615 · MCO → MSP
departs 7:19 AM ET · arrives 10:07 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.