Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1615
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 1615 · MCO → MSP
departs 7:21 AM ET · arrives 10:06 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30 15%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.23 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.