Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
F9 4524 · AUS → MCO
departs 10:47 AM CT · arrives 2:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.