Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 4524 · AUS → MCO
departs 10:47 AM CT · arrives 2:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.