Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4524
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
F9 4524 · AUS → MCO
departs 10:43 AM CT · arrives 2:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.