Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
F9 4578 · SAN → PHX
departs 1:57 PM PT · arrives 3:28 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 31%
Thu 10/29 45%
Fri 10/30 63%
Sat 10/31 34%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.