G7 4180 · DCA → EWR

departs 6:20 PM ET · arrives 7:33 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±8 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G7 4180 · DCA → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?