MQ 4072 · MIA → CZM

departs 1:16 PM ET · arrives 2:18 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at CZM more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CZM?

On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ CZM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.47 in

CZM (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4072 · MIA → CZM

Odds over time

How late will it get to CZM?