Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4072
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
MQ 4072 · MIA → CZM
departs 1:24 PM ET · arrives 2:17 PM EST
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at CZM more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CZM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at CZM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CZM?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
CZM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
CZM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.