Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4262
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
MQ 4262 · DFW → JAN
departs 7:21 PM CT · arrives 8:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30 19%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 29%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at JAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAN?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.