Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5430 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

OH 5430 · ECP → DFW

departs 6:57 PM CT · arrives 9:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP

Weather at each end

ECP (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5430 · ECP → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?