WN 2893 · AUS → MIA

departs 1:16 PM CT · arrives 4:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from AUS are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2893 · AUS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?