Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2893
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
WN 2893 · AUS → MIA
departs 1:20 PM CT · arrives 4:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 10/28
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.01 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,633 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.