YV 3998 · CLT → IAD

departs 7:56 PM ET · arrives 9:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at CLT that day

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 3998 · CLT → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?