Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

MESA · FLIGHT YV 3998 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

YV 3998 · CLT → IAD

departs 7:51 PM ET · arrives 9:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at IAD that day

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YV 3998 · CLT → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?