Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 506 · HNL → JHM
departs 4:11 PM HT · arrives 5:16 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at JHM more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at JHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to JHM?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at JHM that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Arrivals into JHM at that hour are usually not late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.40 in
JHM (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.69 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.