Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 506 · HNL → JHM
departs 4:10 PM HT · arrives 5:14 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/28 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at JHM more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at JHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JHM?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at JHM that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Arrivals into JHM at that hour are usually not late
↓
JHM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
JHM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.