Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 521 · JHM → HNL
departs 7:23 AM HT · arrives 8:32 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 21%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sun 11/1 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
16%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave JHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
16%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.7 in of rain forecast at JHM that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↓
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
JHM (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 2.65 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.