Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 521 · JHM → HNL
departs 7:22 AM HT · arrives 8:45 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28 28%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sun 11/1 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave JHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.2 in of rain forecast at JHM that day
↓
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
JHM (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.25 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.