Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 792
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 792 · MKK → OGG
departs 9:26 AM HT · arrives 10:26 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±7 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 3.0 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.