Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 792
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 792 · MKK → OGG
departs 9:25 AM HT · arrives 10:24 AM HT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at MKK that day
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
↓
9am departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.18 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.