Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 792
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
9X 792 · MKK → OGG
departs 9:24 AM HT · arrives 10:22 AM HT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,367 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OGG (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.