Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 854 · LNY → HNL
departs 9:08 AM HT · arrives 10:18 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
11%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at LNY that day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
9am departures from LNY are usually not late
Weather at each end
LNY (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.74 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.