Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 854 · LNY → HNL
departs 9:07 AM HT · arrives 10:10 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Wed 10/28 37%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±4 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LNY that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
9am departures from LNY are usually not late
↓
LNY usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
LNY (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.18 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.