Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3147 LANDED 7:41 PM ET, ~12 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, October 28

AA 3147 · CLT → MIA

took off 6:09 PM ET · landed 7:41 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3147 · CLT → MIA

Odds over time