Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3216 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 3216 · MIA → BWI

departs 8:25 PM ET · arrives 11:18 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,967 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.24 in

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3216 · MIA → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?