Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 15 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AS 15 · DCA → SAN

departs 10:57 AM ET · arrives 1:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 15 · DCA → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?