Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2089
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
DL 2089 · MSP → SFO
departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Sun 11/1 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
−12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −12 pts in 24h
−12 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.06 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.