DL 236 · TPA → AMS

took off 6:29 PM ET · landed 7:30 AM CET (scheduled 6:02 PM ET → 7:39 AM CET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to AMS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 236 · TPA → AMS

Odds over time

How late did it get to AMS?