Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 2617 · IAH → MSP
departs 5:40 PM CT · arrives 8:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
5pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.