Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2617 · IAH → MSP
departs 5:40 PM CT · arrives 8:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 26%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.