Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 2866 · MSP → EWR
departs 2:10 PM CT · arrives 5:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 53%
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1 48%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.23 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.