Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2866
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2866 · MSP → EWR
departs 2:10 PM CT · arrives 5:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28 25%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 53%
Sat 10/31 38%
Sun 11/1 48%
Mon 11/2 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.