Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2963
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 2963 · DCA → MSP
departs 6:59 PM ET · arrives 8:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from DCA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.