F9 4156 · SFO → LAS

departs 7:10 PM PT · arrives 8:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±6 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4156 · SFO → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?