Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4156 · SFO → LAS
departs 8:14 PM PT · arrives 10:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 39%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±16 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.