Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4156
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4156 · SFO → LAS
departs 10:32 PM PT · arrives 12:20 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
No breakdown for this forecast yet.
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.