OH 5042 · DCA → AGS

departs 7:54 PM ET · arrives 9:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at AGS more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AGS?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

AGS (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5042 · DCA → AGS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AGS?