Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5496 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

OH 5496 · DCA → MSP

departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5496 · DCA → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?