Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
OO 3851 · RAP → MSP
departs 4:15 PM MT · arrives 6:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±6 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RAP
Weather at each end
RAP (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.