Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
OO 3851 · RAP → MSP
departs 4:15 PM MT · arrives 6:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 13%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave RAP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RAP
Weather at each end
RAP (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.