Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5398
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28
OO 5398 · LAX → MRY
departs 6:49 PM PT · arrives 8:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/28
Today 31%
Sat 10/31 25%
Mon 11/2 24%
Thu 11/5 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MRY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MRY?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MRY (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.