OO 5893 · LAX → SBA

departs 4:34 PM PT · arrives 5:30 PM PT

Your aircraft is N616UX (E75L), coming in as OO 4730 from BFL: landed 3:05 PM PT.

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5893 · LAX → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?