Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5893
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
OO 5893 · LAX → SBA
departs 12:43 PM PT · arrives 1:37 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↑
LAX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.09 in
SBA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,533 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.